I say Joe Biden has a 50% chance of getting elected in November and if you buy that impartial fact, then it’s probably a good idea to understand what a Biden presidency means for the economy, markets and business.
This is no small thing.
If he wants to win, Biden has 136 days to convince the electorate that he can best manage the economy. The candidate has some work to do. While the former Vice President leads in national polls, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll 43% of registered voters said they thought Trump would be a better steward of the economy than Biden, against 38% who said Biden would be better. And a late-May Washington Post-ABC News survey said those polled trusted Trump and Biden in nearly equal measure to oversee the economic recovery. At the very least, Biden does not appear to have an advantage when it comes to economics.
None of this is lost on Biden’s advisers. Presiding over a recovery would likely be by necessity the centerpiece of his presidency. A source tells me that his campaign will have a more refined economic plan in the coming days and that making Biden’s case versus Trump’s when it comes to the economy and jobs is a case they aim to make clear.
Here’s what Penny Pritzker, former U.S. Commerce Secretary and adviser to the Biden campaign told me yeasterday, which might serve as a fundamental talking point: “Joe Biden will be a good president for jobs and